Finance

DCO Move Probability $168.05 +1.45 (+0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to DCO Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($176.45) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.60x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.4%
$153.89 — $182.21

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 487 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-19.5% to -16.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -18.2% -16.9% to -14.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -14.2% to -11.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -11.5% to -8.8%: 21 occurrences (4.3%) -10.1% -8.8% to -6.1%: 29 occurrences (6.0%) -6.1% to -3.4%: 36 occurrences (7.4%) -3.4% to -0.7%: 54 occurrences (11.1%) -2.0% -0.7% to +2.0%: 67 occurrences (13.8%) +2.0% to +4.7%: 58 occurrences (11.9%) +4.7% to +7.4%: 63 occurrences (12.9%) 6.1% +7.4% to +10.1%: 49 occurrences (10.1%) +10.1% to +12.8%: 39 occurrences (8.0%) +12.8% to +15.5%: 24 occurrences (4.9%) 14.1% +15.5% to +18.2%: 21 occurrences (4.3%) +18.2% to +20.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +20.9% to +23.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 22.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.5% 41.7% Model-free reality across 487 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 26.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.13) and kurtosis (1.22).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 56.3% 28.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 59.9% 32.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (284 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 35.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 28.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 34.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-20% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +3.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +23.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -19.5%