Finance

CWST Move Probability $90.23 -3.10 (-3.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
44.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($94.74) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
18.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.33x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.4%
$83.57 — $96.89

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-21.7% to -19.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -20.5% -19.3% to -17.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -17.0% to -14.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -14.6% to -12.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -13.4% -12.3% to -9.9%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -9.9% to -7.5%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -7.5% to -5.2%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -6.4% -5.2% to -2.8%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) -2.8% to -0.5%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) -0.5% to +1.9%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) 0.7% +1.9% to +4.3%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) +4.3% to +6.6%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) +6.6% to +9.0%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) 7.8% +9.0% to +11.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +11.3% to +13.7%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +13.7% to +16.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 14.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 44.1% 18.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.28) and kurtosis (2.32).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 50.8% 25.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 56.2% 29.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (162 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 31.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 49.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 24.6%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+57% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +16.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -21.7%