Finance

CWEN.A Move Probability $40.41 +2.21 (+5.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
47.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($42.43) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.53x
You are 1.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.3%
$37.45 — $43.37

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 388 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-04-30). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-12.6% to -10.8%: 6 occurrences (1.5%) -11.7% -10.8% to -9.0%: 10 occurrences (2.6%) -9.0% to -7.2%: 27 occurrences (7.0%) -7.2% to -5.3%: 19 occurrences (4.9%) -6.2% -5.3% to -3.5%: 17 occurrences (4.4%) -3.5% to -1.7%: 24 occurrences (6.2%) -1.7% to +0.1%: 48 occurrences (12.4%) -0.8% +0.1% to +2.0%: 36 occurrences (9.3%) +2.0% to +3.8%: 51 occurrences (13.1%) +3.8% to +5.6%: 46 occurrences (11.9%) 4.7% +5.6% to +7.4%: 25 occurrences (6.4%) +7.4% to +9.3%: 24 occurrences (6.2%) +9.3% to +11.1%: 28 occurrences (7.2%) 10.2% +11.1% to +12.9%: 18 occurrences (4.6%) +12.9% to +14.8%: 6 occurrences (1.5%) +14.8% to +16.6%: 3 occurrences (0.8%) 15.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 47.4% 30.9% Model-free reality across 388 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 18.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.22) and kurtosis (3.6).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 50.5% 25.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 54.0% 34.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (187 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 31.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 41.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 18.3%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+32% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +16.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -12.6%