Finance

CVR Move Probability $11.62 +0.38 (+3.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to CVR Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
19.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($12.21) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
16.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.14x
You are 1.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.2%
$9.97 — $13.28

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-36.1% to -30.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -33.1% -30.0% to -23.9%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -23.9% to -17.8%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -17.8% to -11.6%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -14.7% -11.6% to -5.5%: 48 occurrences (9.5%) -5.5% to +0.6%: 225 occurrences (44.4%) +0.6% to +6.7%: 99 occurrences (19.5%) 3.6% +6.7% to +12.8%: 16 occurrences (3.2%) +12.8% to +18.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +18.9% to +25.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 22.0% +25.1% to +31.2%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +31.2% to +37.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +37.3% to +43.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 40.4% +43.4% to +49.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +49.5% to +55.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +55.6% to +61.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 58.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 19.1% 16.8% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.0) and kurtosis (53.7).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.1% 36.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 26.0% 22.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (131 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 60.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 36.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 4.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-40% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +61.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -36.1%