Finance

CVKD Move Probability $1.02 -0.03 (-3.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
57.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.07) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.20x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±22.7%
$0.79 — $1.25

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-46.1% to -39.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -42.7% -39.3% to -32.6%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -32.6% to -25.9%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -25.9% to -19.2%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -22.5% -19.2% to -12.5%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) -12.5% to -5.8%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) -5.8% to +1.0%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) -2.4% +1.0% to +7.7%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) +7.7% to +14.4%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) +14.4% to +21.1%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 17.7% +21.1% to +27.8%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +27.8% to +34.5%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +34.5% to +41.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 37.9% +41.3% to +48.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +48.0% to +54.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +54.7% to +61.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 58.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 57.7% 26.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 34.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.35) and kurtosis (5.09).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 83.0% 41.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 57.2% 22.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (297 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 96.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 104.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 39.7%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -7.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +23.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -28.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +61.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -46.1%