Finance

CTNM Move Probability $8.33 -0.14 (-1.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
68.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($8.75) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
32.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.14x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±20.6%
$6.61 — $10.05

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-49.2% to -41.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -45.4% -41.5% to -33.9%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -33.9% to -26.2%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -26.2% to -18.6%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -22.4% -18.6% to -10.9%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -10.9% to -3.3%: 96 occurrences (18.9%) -3.3% to +4.4%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) 0.5% +4.4% to +12.0%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +12.0% to +19.7%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +19.7% to +27.3%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) 23.5% +27.3% to +35.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +35.0% to +42.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +42.6% to +50.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 46.4% +50.2% to +57.9%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +57.9% to +65.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +65.5% to +73.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 69.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 68.7% 32.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 31.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.32) and kurtosis (10.7).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 81.3% 40.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 83.9% 51.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (31 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 87.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 199.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 60.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+128% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +26.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -22.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +73.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -49.2%