Finance

CRS Move Probability $296.78 -70.97 (-19.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
64.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($311.62) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.68x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.5%
$262.60 — $330.96

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 509 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-23.8% to -20.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -21.9% -20.1% to -16.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -16.3% to -12.6%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -12.6% to -8.9%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -10.8% -8.9% to -5.2%: 47 occurrences (9.2%) -5.2% to -1.5%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -1.5% to +2.2%: 79 occurrences (15.5%) 0.4% +2.2% to +5.9%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +5.9% to +9.6%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +9.6% to +13.3%: 43 occurrences (8.4%) 11.5% +13.3% to +17.1%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +17.1% to +20.8%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +20.8% to +24.5%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 22.6% +24.5% to +28.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +28.2% to +31.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +31.9% to +35.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 33.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 64.6% 38.5% Model-free reality across 509 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 18.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.08) and kurtosis (9.42).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 67.2% 33.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 65.1% 35.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (166 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 48.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 77.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 38.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+58% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +19.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +35.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -23.8%