Finance

CRNT Move Probability $2.00 +0.00 (+0.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.09) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.11x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.9%
$1.72 — $2.27

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-46.9% to -38.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -42.7% -38.5% to -30.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -30.2% to -21.8%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -21.8% to -13.5%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -17.7% -13.5% to -5.1%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -5.1% to +3.2%: 185 occurrences (36.4%) +3.2% to +11.6%: 104 occurrences (20.5%) 7.4% +11.6% to +19.9%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) +19.9% to +28.2%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +28.2% to +36.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 32.4% +36.6% to +44.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +44.9% to +53.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +53.3% to +61.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 57.4% +61.6% to +70.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +70.0% to +78.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +78.3% to +86.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 82.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.0% 29.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 29.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.2) and kurtosis (5.15).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 72.6% 36.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 62.0% 28.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (274 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 59.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 39.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 45.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-33% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +86.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -46.9%