Finance

CRMD Move Probability $7.79 +0.23 (+3.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
73.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($8.18) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.98x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±41.7%
$4.54 — $11.05

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-44.1% to +98.0%: 491 occurrences (96.7%) 27.0% +98.0% to +240.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +240.2% to +382.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +382.3% to +524.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 453.4% +524.4% to +666.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +666.6% to +808.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +808.7% to +950.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 879.8% +950.8% to +1093.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1093.0% to +1235.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1235.1% to +1377.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 1306.2% +1377.2% to +1519.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1519.3% to +1661.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1661.5% to +1803.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 1732.5% +1803.6% to +1945.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +1945.7% to +2087.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +2087.9% to +2230.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 2158.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 73.6% 37.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (15.21) and kurtosis (288.23).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.7% 45.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 66.0% 25.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (47 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 177.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 29.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 52.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-83% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +35.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +2230.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -44.1%