Finance

CRM Move Probability $250.68 -4.85 (-1.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
49.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($263.21) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.58x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.4%
$227.23 — $274.12

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-08-19 to 2026-09-16). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-28.2% to -24.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -26.2% -24.2% to -20.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -20.2% to -16.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -16.2% to -12.2%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -14.2% -12.2% to -8.2%: 51 occurrences (10.1%) -8.2% to -4.2%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) -4.2% to -0.2%: 95 occurrences (18.7%) -2.2% -0.2% to +3.8%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) +3.8% to +7.8%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) +7.8% to +11.8%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) 9.8% +11.8% to +15.8%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +15.8% to +19.7%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +19.7% to +23.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 21.7% +23.7% to +27.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +27.7% to +31.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +31.7% to +35.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 33.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 49.1% 31.2% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 13.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.15) and kurtosis (9.15).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 60.2% 30.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 60.0% 50.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (30 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 39.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 79.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 29.9%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+101% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +35.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -28.2%