Finance

CRL Move Probability $344.83 +29.38 (+9.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
64.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($362.07) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.57x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.2%
$302.74 — $386.92

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-41.0% to -36.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -38.6% -36.3% to -31.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -31.5% to -26.7%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -26.7% to -22.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -24.4% -22.0% to -17.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -17.2% to -12.5%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -12.5% to -7.7%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -10.1% -7.7% to -2.9%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) -2.9% to +1.8%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) +1.8% to +6.6%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) 4.2% +6.6% to +11.3%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) +11.3% to +16.1%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +16.1% to +20.9%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) 18.5% +20.9% to +25.6%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +25.6% to +30.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +30.4% to +35.2%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 32.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 64.6% 41.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.76) and kurtosis (25.19).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 68.9% 34.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 63.0% 37.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (346 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 51.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 50.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 37.7%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +35.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -41.0%