Finance

CRBU Move Probability $0.54 +0.02 (+4.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
73.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.57) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.30x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±21.5%
$0.43 — $0.66

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-64.7% to -55.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -59.9% -55.1% to -45.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -45.5% to -35.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -35.9% to -26.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -31.1% -26.3% to -16.7%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -16.7% to -7.1%: 119 occurrences (23.4%) -7.1% to +2.5%: 115 occurrences (22.6%) -2.3% +2.5% to +12.1%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) +12.1% to +21.7%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +21.7% to +31.3%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) 26.5% +31.3% to +40.9%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +40.9% to +50.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +50.5% to +60.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 55.3% +60.1% to +69.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +69.6% to +79.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +79.2% to +88.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 84.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 73.4% 31.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.24) and kurtosis (23.28).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.1% 41.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 91.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 237.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 73.3%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+160% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +25.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +88.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -64.7%