Finance

CPAY Move Probability $407.50 -0.87 (-0.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
49.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($427.88) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.59x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.4%
$373.28 — $441.72

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-19.9% to -17.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -18.7% -17.6% to -15.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -15.2% to -12.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -12.9% to -10.6%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -11.7% -10.6% to -8.3%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -8.3% to -5.9%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -5.9% to -3.6%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -4.8% -3.6% to -1.3%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -1.3% to +1.0%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) +1.0% to +3.4%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) 2.2% +3.4% to +5.7%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) +5.7% to +8.0%: 48 occurrences (9.4%) +8.0% to +10.3%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) 9.2% +10.3% to +12.7%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +12.7% to +15.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +15.0% to +17.3%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 16.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 49.4% 31.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 15.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.21) and kurtosis (6.64).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 56.1% 28.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 36.6% 20.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (172 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 35.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 20.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-44% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +17.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -19.9%