Finance

CORD Move Probability $5.88 +0.93 (+18.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
88.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($6.17) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.45x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±47.7%
$3.07 — $8.69

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 255 historical windows (2025-09-29 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-76.1% to -57.6%: 12 occurrences (4.7%) -66.8% -57.6% to -39.1%: 28 occurrences (11.0%) -39.1% to -20.6%: 46 occurrences (18.0%) -20.6% to -2.1%: 56 occurrences (22.0%) -11.3% -2.1% to +16.4%: 48 occurrences (18.8%) +16.4% to +34.9%: 22 occurrences (8.6%) +34.9% to +53.5%: 14 occurrences (5.5%) 44.2% +53.5% to +72.0%: 14 occurrences (5.5%) +72.0% to +90.5%: 5 occurrences (2.0%) +90.5% to +109.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 99.7% +109.0% to +127.5%: 3 occurrences (1.2%) +127.5% to +146.0%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) +146.0% to +164.5%: 2 occurrences (0.8%) 155.2% +164.5% to +183.0%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) +183.0% to +201.5%: 2 occurrences (0.8%) +201.5% to +220.0%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) 210.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 88.2% 36.1% Model-free reality across 255 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 53.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.35) and kurtosis (4.22).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.9% 45.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 90.4% 35.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (166 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 202.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 158.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 137.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-22% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -6.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +57.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -48.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +220.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -76.1%