Finance

CON Move Probability $39.10 +0.34 (+0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
48.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($41.05) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.59x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.1%
$36.34 — $41.86

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-14.0% to -11.7%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -12.9% -11.7% to -9.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -9.5% to -7.2%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -7.2% to -5.0%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -6.1% -5.0% to -2.8%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -2.8% to -0.5%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) -0.5% to +1.7%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) 0.6% +1.7% to +4.0%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) +4.0% to +6.2%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +6.2% to +8.5%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) 7.3% +8.5% to +10.7%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) +10.7% to +12.9%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) +12.9% to +15.2%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 14.1% +15.2% to +17.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +17.4% to +19.7%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +19.7% to +21.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 20.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 48.6% 30.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 17.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.46) and kurtosis (2.85).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 49.0% 24.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 50.5% 35.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (319 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 30.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 23.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-22% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +21.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -14.0%