Finance

CODX Move Probability $0.62 -0.02 (-3.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
64.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.65) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
24.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.61x
You are 2.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±57.3%
$0.26 — $0.97

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-73.1% to +10.4%: 415 occurrences (81.7%) -31.3% +10.4% to +94.0%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +94.0% to +177.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +177.5% to +261.1%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 219.3% +261.1% to +344.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +344.6% to +428.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +428.1% to +511.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 469.9% +511.7% to +595.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +595.2% to +678.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +678.7% to +762.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 720.5% +762.3% to +845.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +845.8% to +929.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +929.3% to +1012.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 971.1% +1012.9% to +1096.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +1096.4% to +1180.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +1180.0% to +1263.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 1221.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 64.8% 24.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (6.78) and kurtosis (96.63).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 93.2% 46.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 66.1% 22.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (189 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 243.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 137.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 122.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-43% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -7.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +26.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -37.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +1263.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -73.1%