Finance

CNTX Move Probability $0.23 -0.02 (-6.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
73.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.24) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
32.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.29x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±24.5%
$0.17 — $0.28

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-78.8% to -69.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -74.1% -69.5% to -60.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -60.1% to -50.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -50.8% to -41.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -46.1% -41.5% to -32.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -32.2% to -22.8%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) -22.8% to -13.5%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) -18.2% -13.5% to -4.2%: 103 occurrences (20.3%) -4.2% to +5.2%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) +5.2% to +14.5%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) 9.8% +14.5% to +23.8%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) +23.8% to +33.1%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +33.1% to +42.5%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 37.8% +42.5% to +51.8%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +51.8% to +61.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +61.1% to +70.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 65.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 73.6% 32.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 36.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.47) and kurtosis (28.53).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.2% 42.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 76.4% 36.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (335 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 104.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 71.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 78.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-31% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +31.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -25.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +70.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -78.8%