Finance

CNTB Move Probability $0.80 -0.08 (-9.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.84) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
39.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.88x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±44.7%
$0.44 — $1.15

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-41.9% to +24.1%: 426 occurrences (83.9%) -8.9% +24.1% to +90.0%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) +90.0% to +156.0%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +156.0% to +222.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 189.0% +222.0% to +287.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +287.9% to +353.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +353.9% to +419.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 386.9% +419.9% to +485.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +485.9% to +551.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +551.8% to +617.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 584.8% +617.8% to +683.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +683.8% to +749.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +749.7% to +815.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 782.7% +815.7% to +881.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +881.7% to +947.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +947.7% to +1013.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 980.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 74.4% 39.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (12.56) and kurtosis (221.42).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.3% 45.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 78.8% 49.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (311 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 189.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 78.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 71.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-58% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +58.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -18.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +1013.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -41.9%