Finance

CMCT Move Probability $4.25 -1.35 (-24.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.46) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.38x
You are 2.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±60.5%
$1.68 — $6.82

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-95.8% to +50.2%: 465 occurrences (91.5%) -22.8% +50.2% to +196.2%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +196.2% to +342.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +342.3% to +488.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 415.3% +488.3% to +634.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +634.3% to +780.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +780.4% to +926.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 853.4% +926.4% to +1072.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1072.4% to +1218.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +1218.4% to +1364.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 1291.5% +1364.5% to +1510.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1510.5% to +1656.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1656.5% to +1802.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 1729.5% +1802.6% to +1948.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1948.6% to +2094.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +2094.6% to +2240.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 2167.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.2% 26.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 9.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (4.49) and kurtosis (71.75).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 93.6% 46.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 68.6% 12.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (86 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 256.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 266.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 127.3%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -11.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +44.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -45.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +2240.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -95.8%