Finance

CLRO Move Probability $5.45 +2.09 (+62.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
54.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($5.72) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.56x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±55.0%
$2.45 — $8.45

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-10-03 to 2026-11-02). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-64.2% to +1.0%: 299 occurrences (58.9%) -31.6% +1.0% to +66.2%: 160 occurrences (31.5%) +66.2% to +131.4%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +131.4% to +196.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 164.0% +196.6% to +261.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +261.7% to +326.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +326.9% to +392.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 359.5% +392.1% to +457.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +457.3% to +522.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +522.5% to +587.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 555.1% +587.7% to +652.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +652.9% to +718.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +718.0% to +783.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 750.6% +783.2% to +848.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +848.4% to +913.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +913.6% to +978.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 946.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 54.7% 35.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (7.56) and kurtosis (97.7).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 92.9% 46.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 85.0% 37.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (40 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 233.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 481.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 96.8%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+106% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +60.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -30.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +978.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -64.2%