Finance

CLNN Move Probability $3.78 -0.05 (-1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($3.97) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.88x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±24.1%
$2.87 — $4.69

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-41.3% to -33.7%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -37.5% -33.7% to -26.1%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -26.1% to -18.6%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -18.6% to -11.0%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) -14.8% -11.0% to -3.4%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) -3.4% to +4.2%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) +4.2% to +11.8%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 8.0% +11.8% to +19.4%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) +19.4% to +27.0%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +27.0% to +34.6%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 30.8% +34.6% to +42.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +42.2% to +49.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +49.8% to +57.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 53.6% +57.4% to +65.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +65.0% to +72.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +72.6% to +80.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 76.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.1% 35.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 32.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.54) and kurtosis (6.69).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.0% 42.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.0% 40.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (285 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 102.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 81.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 59.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-21% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -22.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +80.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -41.3%