Finance

CLNE Move Probability $1.34 -0.01 (-0.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.41) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.15x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.9%
$1.14 — $1.55

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-45.9% to -40.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -43.0% -40.0% to -34.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -34.2% to -28.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -28.4% to -22.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -25.5% -22.6% to -16.7%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -16.7% to -10.9%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -10.9% to -5.1%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) -8.0% -5.1% to +0.7%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) +0.7% to +6.6%: 99 occurrences (19.5%) +6.6% to +12.4%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 9.5% +12.4% to +18.2%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) +18.2% to +24.0%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +24.0% to +29.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 26.9% +29.9% to +35.7%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +35.7% to +41.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +41.5% to +47.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 44.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.3% 30.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 29.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.49) and kurtosis (7.55).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 74.3% 37.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 65.2% 27.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (353 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 63.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 59.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 51.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +16.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +47.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -45.9%