Finance

CLFD Move Probability $29.20 -0.16 (-0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
63.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($30.65) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.19x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.3%
$25.30 — $33.09

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-30.4% to -24.2%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -27.3% -24.2% to -17.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -17.9% to -11.7%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -11.7% to -5.4%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) -8.5% -5.4% to +0.9%: 104 occurrences (20.5%) +0.9% to +7.1%: 118 occurrences (23.2%) +7.1% to +13.4%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) 10.2% +13.4% to +19.6%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +19.6% to +25.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +25.9% to +32.1%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 29.0% +32.1% to +38.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +38.4% to +44.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +44.7% to +50.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 47.8% +50.9% to +57.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +57.2% to +63.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +63.4% to +69.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 66.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 63.8% 29.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 22.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.19) and kurtosis (14.12).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.4% 35.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 62.9% 35.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (337 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 56.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 37.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-18% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -15.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +69.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -30.4%