Finance

CLDX Move Probability $29.36 -0.94 (-3.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
63.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($30.83) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.14x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.2%
$25.50 — $33.22

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-26.2% to -22.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -24.1% -22.1% to -18.1%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -18.1% to -14.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -14.0% to -10.0%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) -12.0% -10.0% to -6.0%: 82 occurrences (16.1%) -6.0% to -1.9%: 92 occurrences (18.1%) -1.9% to +2.1%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) 0.1% +2.1% to +6.1%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +6.1% to +10.2%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) +10.2% to +14.2%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) 12.2% +14.2% to +18.3%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +18.3% to +22.3%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +22.3% to +26.3%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 24.3% +26.3% to +30.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +30.4% to +34.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +34.4% to +38.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 36.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 63.6% 29.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.41) and kurtosis (4.12).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.1% 35.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 63.5% 29.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (403 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 55.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 51.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 51.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +38.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -26.2%