Finance

CLDT Move Probability $14.32 +0.17 (+1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to CLDT Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
50.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($15.04) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.75x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.3%
$13.27 — $15.37

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.0% to -17.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -18.6% -17.2% to -14.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -14.3% to -11.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -11.5% to -8.7%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -10.1% -8.7% to -5.9%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) -5.9% to -3.1%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -3.1% to -0.3%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -1.7% -0.3% to +2.5%: 92 occurrences (18.1%) +2.5% to +5.3%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) +5.3% to +8.1%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) 6.7% +8.1% to +11.0%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +11.0% to +13.8%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +13.8% to +16.6%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 15.2% +16.6% to +19.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +19.4% to +22.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +22.2% to +25.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 23.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 50.0% 28.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 12.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.61) and kurtosis (6.64).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 50.4% 25.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.5% 18.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (122 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 31.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 17.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 24.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-43% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +25.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -20.0%