Finance

CLAR Move Probability $3.83 +0.23 (+6.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
57.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.02) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
25.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.25x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.6%
$3.43 — $4.23

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-19.4% to -16.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -18.1% -16.8% to -14.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -14.2% to -11.5%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -11.5% to -8.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -10.2% -8.9% to -6.3%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -6.3% to -3.7%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) -3.7% to -1.0%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -2.4% -1.0% to +1.6%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) +1.6% to +4.2%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +4.2% to +6.8%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) 5.5% +6.8% to +9.4%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) +9.4% to +12.1%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +12.1% to +14.7%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) 13.4% +14.7% to +17.3%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +17.3% to +19.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +19.9% to +22.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 21.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 57.5% 25.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.11) and kurtosis (2.12).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 64.4% 32.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 62.0% 23.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (250 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 44.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 32.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 33.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-28% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -19.4%