Finance

CKX Move Probability $10.61 +0.06 (+0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
20.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.14) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
15.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.32x
You are 1.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.3%
$9.95 — $11.27

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.4% to -17.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -19.1% -17.9% to -15.4%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -15.4% to -12.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -12.9% to -10.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -11.6% -10.4% to -7.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -7.9% to -5.4%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) -5.4% to -2.9%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) -4.1% -2.9% to -0.4%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -0.4% to +2.1%: 195 occurrences (38.4%) +2.1% to +4.6%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) 3.4% +4.6% to +7.1%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +7.1% to +9.6%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +9.6% to +12.1%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 10.9% +12.1% to +14.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +14.6% to +17.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +17.1% to +19.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 18.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 20.1% 15.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.2) and kurtosis (48.45).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 43.6% 21.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 44.4% 44.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (18 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 26.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 6.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 4.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-75% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +19.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -20.4%