Finance

CION Move Probability $6.31 -0.05 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
33.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($6.63) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
19.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.71x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.9%
$5.88 — $6.74

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.6% to -17.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -19.0% -17.5% to -14.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -14.4% to -11.3%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -11.3% to -8.2%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -9.7% -8.2% to -5.1%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -5.1% to -1.9%: 102 occurrences (20.1%) -1.9% to +1.2%: 90 occurrences (17.7%) -0.4% +1.2% to +4.3%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) +4.3% to +7.4%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) +7.4% to +10.5%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) 8.9% +10.5% to +13.6%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +13.6% to +16.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +16.7% to +19.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 18.3% +19.8% to +22.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +22.9% to +26.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +26.0% to +29.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 27.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 33.1% 19.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 5.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.66) and kurtosis (12.29).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 47.8% 23.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 25.2% 13.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (294 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 29.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 25.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 20.9%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -20.6%