Finance

CIBN Move Probability $27.60 +0.10 (+0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to CIBN Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
30.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($28.98) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
19.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.53x
You are 1.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.8%
$25.46 — $29.74

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 487 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-18.5% to -15.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -17.2% -15.9% to -13.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -13.4% to -10.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -10.8% to -8.2%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -9.5% -8.2% to -5.6%: 15 occurrences (3.1%) -5.6% to -3.1%: 23 occurrences (4.7%) -3.1% to -0.5%: 56 occurrences (11.5%) -1.8% -0.5% to +2.1%: 176 occurrences (36.1%) +2.1% to +4.7%: 98 occurrences (20.1%) +4.7% to +7.2%: 44 occurrences (9.0%) 5.9% +7.2% to +9.8%: 28 occurrences (5.7%) +9.8% to +12.4%: 11 occurrences (2.3%) +12.4% to +15.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 13.7% +15.0% to +17.5%: 12 occurrences (2.5%) +17.5% to +20.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +20.1% to +22.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 21.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 30.2% 19.7% Model-free reality across 487 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.46) and kurtosis (41.67).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 52.9% 26.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 24.3% 20.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (74 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 32.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 8.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 17.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-75% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -18.5%