Finance

CGON Move Probability $75.94 +11.19 (+17.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($79.74) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
35.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.99x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.4%
$65.02 — $86.86

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-10-10 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-44.3% to -36.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -40.6% -36.9% to -29.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -29.6% to -22.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -22.3% to -15.0%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -18.6% -15.0% to -7.7%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -7.7% to -0.3%: 131 occurrences (25.8%) -0.3% to +7.0%: 123 occurrences (24.3%) 3.3% +7.0% to +14.3%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) +14.3% to +21.6%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) +21.6% to +29.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) 25.3% +29.0% to +36.3%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +36.3% to +43.6%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +43.6% to +50.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 47.3% +50.9% to +58.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +58.2% to +65.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +65.6% to +72.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 69.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.4% 35.9% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.31) and kurtosis (10.03).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.4% 36.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.9% 38.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (316 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 61.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 68.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 50.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +19.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +72.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -44.3%