Finance

CG Move Probability $37.28 -0.03 (-0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
57.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($39.14) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
32.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.79x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.6%
$33.72 — $40.84

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-24.5% to -21.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -22.9% -21.3% to -18.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -18.0% to -14.7%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -14.7% to -11.4%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -13.1% -11.4% to -8.2%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) -8.2% to -4.9%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) -4.9% to -1.6%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -3.3% -1.6% to +1.7%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +1.7% to +4.9%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +4.9% to +8.2%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) 6.6% +8.2% to +11.5%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) +11.5% to +14.8%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +14.8% to +18.0%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 16.4% +18.0% to +21.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +21.3% to +24.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +24.6% to +27.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 26.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 57.3% 32.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 23.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.66) and kurtosis (5.33).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 61.0% 30.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 58.1% 31.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (322 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 40.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 28.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 33.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +27.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -24.5%