Finance

CEVA Move Probability $29.78 +0.92 (+3.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($31.27) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.85x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.1%
$24.98 — $34.58

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-36.2% to -30.5%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -33.3% -30.5% to -24.8%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -24.8% to -19.1%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -19.1% to -13.4%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -16.2% -13.4% to -7.6%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -7.6% to -1.9%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) -1.9% to +3.8%: 83 occurrences (16.3%) 0.9% +3.8% to +9.5%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) +9.5% to +15.2%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) +15.2% to +20.9%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) 18.0% +20.9% to +26.6%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +26.6% to +32.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +32.3% to +38.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 35.1% +38.0% to +43.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +43.7% to +49.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +49.4% to +55.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 52.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.5% 37.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 33.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.22) and kurtosis (4.16).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.2% 38.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 76.8% 46.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (254 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 68.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 56.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 44.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-17% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +21.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +55.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -36.2%