Finance

CENX Move Probability $34.50 +1.02 (+3.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
76.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($36.23) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
42.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.4%
$29.19 — $39.81

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-33.6% to -28.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -31.1% -28.6% to -23.6%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -23.6% to -18.6%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -18.6% to -13.6%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -16.1% -13.6% to -8.7%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -8.7% to -3.7%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -3.7% to +1.3%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -1.2% +1.3% to +6.3%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) +6.3% to +11.3%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) +11.3% to +16.3%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) 13.8% +16.3% to +21.3%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +21.3% to +26.3%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +26.3% to +31.3%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 28.8% +31.3% to +36.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +36.3% to +41.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +41.3% to +46.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 43.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 76.6% 42.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 32.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.15) and kurtosis (2.91).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 75.1% 37.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 80.0% 54.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (185 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 65.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 38.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 52.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-41% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +46.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -33.6%