Finance

CEG Move Probability $270.63 +11.81 (+4.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to CEG Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
68.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($284.16) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.25x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.1%
$235.18 — $306.08

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.8% to -32.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -34.9% -32.0% to -26.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -26.2% to -20.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -20.5% to -14.7%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -17.6% -14.7% to -8.9%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -8.9% to -3.1%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) -3.1% to +2.7%: 113 occurrences (22.2%) -0.2% +2.7% to +8.5%: 108 occurrences (21.3%) +8.5% to +14.2%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) +14.2% to +20.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 17.1% +20.0% to +25.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +25.8% to +31.6%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +31.6% to +37.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 34.5% +37.4% to +43.2%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +43.2% to +49.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +49.0% to +54.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 51.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 68.3% 30.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.25) and kurtosis (7.82).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.0% 35.5% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 64.5% 25.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (304 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 55.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 61.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 42.3%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +54.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -37.8%