Finance

CECO Move Probability $58.63 +1.31 (+2.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
72.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($61.56) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
42.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.71x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.1%
$50.39 — $66.87

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-34.4% to -29.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -31.8% -29.2% to -23.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -23.9% to -18.7%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -18.7% to -13.4%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) -16.1% -13.4% to -8.2%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -8.2% to -2.9%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) -2.9% to +2.3%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -0.3% +2.3% to +7.6%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) +7.6% to +12.9%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +12.9% to +18.1%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) 15.5% +18.1% to +23.4%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +23.4% to +28.6%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +28.6% to +33.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 31.3% +33.9% to +39.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +39.1% to +44.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +44.4% to +49.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 47.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 72.4% 42.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 29.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.37) and kurtosis (6.35).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 72.9% 36.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 74.1% 41.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (363 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 59.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 57.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.0%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +49.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -34.4%