Finance

CDZI Move Probability $3.98 -0.04 (-1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.17) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.98x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±15.6%
$3.35 — $4.60

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-32.4% to -28.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -30.2% -28.1% to -23.7%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -23.7% to -19.4%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -19.4% to -15.1%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -17.2% -15.1% to -10.7%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -10.7% to -6.4%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -6.4% to -2.0%: 82 occurrences (16.1%) -4.2% -2.0% to +2.3%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) +2.3% to +6.6%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) +6.6% to +11.0%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) 8.8% +11.0% to +15.3%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +15.3% to +19.6%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) +19.6% to +24.0%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) 21.8% +24.0% to +28.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +28.3% to +32.6%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +32.6% to +37.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 34.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 74.8% 37.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 33.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.33) and kurtosis (2.16).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 75.5% 37.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 74.6% 33.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (303 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 66.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 89.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 57.8%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +19.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +37.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -32.4%