Finance

CDIX Move Probability $0.02 -0.02 (-50.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
41.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.02) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
19.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.15x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±59.5%
$0.01 — $0.03

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 486 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-92.2% to -70.1%: 14 occurrences (2.9%) -81.1% -70.1% to -48.0%: 62 occurrences (12.8%) -48.0% to -25.9%: 37 occurrences (7.6%) -25.9% to -3.8%: 96 occurrences (19.8%) -14.8% -3.8% to +18.3%: 231 occurrences (47.5%) +18.3% to +40.4%: 24 occurrences (4.9%) +40.4% to +62.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 51.5% +62.5% to +84.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +84.6% to +106.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +106.7% to +128.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 117.8% +128.8% to +150.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +150.9% to +173.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +173.0% to +195.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 184.1% +195.1% to +217.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +217.2% to +239.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +239.3% to +261.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 250.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 41.6% 19.3% Model-free reality across 486 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 39.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.11) and kurtosis (19.45).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 93.5% 46.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.6% 20.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (70 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 252.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 486.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 154.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+93% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +17.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -53.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +261.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -92.2%