Finance

CBUS Move Probability $1.41 +0.06 (+4.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
78.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.48) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
38.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.04x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±45.4%
$0.77 — $2.05

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-56.7% to +132.0%: 494 occurrences (97.2%) 37.7% +132.0% to +320.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +320.8% to +509.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +509.5% to +698.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 603.9% +698.2% to +886.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +886.9% to +1075.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1075.7% to +1264.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 1170.0% +1264.4% to +1453.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1453.1% to +1641.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +1641.8% to +1830.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 1736.2% +1830.6% to +2019.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +2019.3% to +2208.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +2208.0% to +2396.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 2302.4% +2396.8% to +2585.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +2585.5% to +2774.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +2774.2% to +2962.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 2868.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 78.0% 38.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (12.09) and kurtosis (210.91).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.4% 45.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 76.3% 37.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (219 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 192.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 68.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 76.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-65% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +35.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +2962.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -56.7%