Finance

CARL Move Probability $14.36 +0.15 (+1.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
67.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($15.07) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.01x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.3%
$12.01 — $16.70

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 301 historical windows (2025-07-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.9% to -21.8%: 7 occurrences (2.3%) -23.8% -21.8% to -17.6%: 7 occurrences (2.3%) -17.6% to -13.5%: 15 occurrences (5.0%) -13.5% to -9.4%: 30 occurrences (10.0%) -11.4% -9.4% to -5.2%: 51 occurrences (16.9%) -5.2% to -1.1%: 39 occurrences (13.0%) -1.1% to +3.0%: 37 occurrences (12.3%) 1.0% +3.0% to +7.2%: 29 occurrences (9.6%) +7.2% to +11.3%: 23 occurrences (7.6%) +11.3% to +15.4%: 16 occurrences (5.3%) 13.4% +15.4% to +19.5%: 21 occurrences (7.0%) +19.5% to +23.7%: 11 occurrences (3.7%) +23.7% to +27.8%: 7 occurrences (2.3%) 25.7% +27.8% to +31.9%: 2 occurrences (0.7%) +31.9% to +36.1%: 5 occurrences (1.7%) +36.1% to +40.2%: 1 occurrences (0.3%) 38.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 67.4% 33.6% Model-free reality across 301 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.26) and kurtosis (1.35).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.5% 38.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.2% 35.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (194 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 69.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 57.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 42.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-16% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +18.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +40.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.9%