Finance

CARG Move Probability $31.20 -0.48 (-1.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
54.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($32.76) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.57x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.2%
$28.33 — $34.07

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-26.2% to -22.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -24.4% -22.6% to -19.1%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -19.1% to -15.5%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -15.5% to -11.9%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -13.7% -11.9% to -8.3%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -8.3% to -4.7%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -4.7% to -1.1%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -2.9% -1.1% to +2.5%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) +2.5% to +6.1%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) +6.1% to +9.7%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) 7.9% +9.7% to +13.3%: 38 occurrences (7.5%) +13.3% to +16.9%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +16.9% to +20.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 18.7% +20.5% to +24.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +24.0% to +27.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +27.6% to +31.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 29.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 54.7% 34.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 19.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.85) and kurtosis (8.22).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 59.6% 29.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 49.1% 31.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (318 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 39.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 31.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 30.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-20% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +31.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -26.2%