Finance

BWMN Move Probability $42.78 -0.01 (-0.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
57.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($44.92) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.86x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.4%
$37.48 — $48.08

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.1% to -19.5%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -22.3% -19.5% to -13.9%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -13.9% to -8.3%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) -8.3% to -2.7%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) -5.5% -2.7% to +2.9%: 134 occurrences (26.4%) +2.9% to +8.4%: 99 occurrences (19.5%) +8.4% to +14.0%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) 11.2% +14.0% to +19.6%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +19.6% to +25.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +25.2% to +30.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 28.0% +30.8% to +36.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +36.4% to +42.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +42.0% to +47.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 44.8% +47.6% to +53.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +53.2% to +58.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +58.7% to +64.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 61.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 57.9% 31.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.89) and kurtosis (66.77).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 69.4% 34.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.0% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (11 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 52.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 1.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 28.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-96% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +16.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +64.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.1%