Finance

BKV Move Probability $22.30 -0.35 (-1.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
61.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($23.42) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.78x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.3%
$20.00 — $24.60

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 505 historical windows (2024-09-26 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.2% to -21.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -23.2% -21.2% to -17.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -17.3% to -13.4%: 20 occurrences (4.0%) -13.4% to -9.4%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -11.4% -9.4% to -5.5%: 54 occurrences (10.7%) -5.5% to -1.6%: 80 occurrences (15.8%) -1.6% to +2.3%: 75 occurrences (14.9%) 0.4% +2.3% to +6.3%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) +6.3% to +10.2%: 58 occurrences (11.5%) +10.2% to +14.1%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) 12.2% +14.1% to +18.1%: 23 occurrences (4.6%) +18.1% to +22.0%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +22.0% to +25.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 23.9% +25.9% to +29.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +29.8% to +33.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +33.8% to +37.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 35.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 61.8% 34.7% Model-free reality across 505 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 28.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.73) and kurtosis (4.27).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 63.6% 31.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 60.0% 29.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (405 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 43.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 44.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 33.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +37.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.2%