Finance

BKH Move Probability $78.61 +1.08 (+1.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to BKH Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
30.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($82.54) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
15.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.01x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.1%
$74.60 — $82.62

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-9.8% to -8.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -9.1% -8.4% to -7.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -7.0% to -5.5%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -5.5% to -4.1%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) -4.8% -4.1% to -2.7%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) -2.7% to -1.3%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -1.3% to +0.1%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) -0.6% +0.1% to +1.5%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) +1.5% to +3.0%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) +3.0% to +4.4%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) 3.7% +4.4% to +5.8%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) +5.8% to +7.2%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +7.2% to +8.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 7.9% +8.6% to +10.0%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +10.0% to +11.4%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +11.4% to +12.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 12.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 30.1% 15.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.22) and kurtosis (3.65).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 33.9% 16.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 32.0% 16.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (309 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 21.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 17.4%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+28% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +12.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -9.8%