Finance

BIPC Move Probability $36.71 -0.34 (-0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
41.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($38.55) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
21.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.97x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.8%
$34.22 — $39.20

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-21.8% to -19.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -20.5% -19.3% to -16.8%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -16.8% to -14.3%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -14.3% to -11.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -13.1% -11.9% to -9.4%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -9.4% to -6.9%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) -6.9% to -4.4%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -5.7% -4.4% to -2.0%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -2.0% to +0.5%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) +0.5% to +3.0%: 79 occurrences (15.6%) 1.7% +3.0% to +5.5%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) +5.5% to +7.9%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) +7.9% to +10.4%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) 9.2% +10.4% to +12.9%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +12.9% to +15.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +15.4% to +17.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 16.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 41.5% 21.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 16.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.71) and kurtosis (4.5).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 47.1% 23.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.0% 16.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (358 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 28.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 24.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 24.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-16% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +17.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -21.8%