Finance

BEN Move Probability $31.67 +0.43 (+1.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
49.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($33.25) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.81x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.9%
$29.47 — $33.87

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-15.7% to -13.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -14.5% -13.3% to -10.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -10.9% to -8.5%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -8.5% to -6.1%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -7.3% -6.1% to -3.6%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -3.6% to -1.2%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -1.2% to +1.2%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -0.0% +1.2% to +3.6%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) +3.6% to +6.0%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) +6.0% to +8.4%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) 7.2% +8.4% to +10.8%: 28 occurrences (5.5%) +10.8% to +13.2%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +13.2% to +15.6%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 14.4% +15.6% to +18.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +18.0% to +20.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +20.4% to +22.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 21.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 49.2% 27.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 14.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.42) and kurtosis (4.52).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 48.2% 24.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 43.7% 21.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (279 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 29.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 20.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-29% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +22.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -15.7%