Finance

BDTX Move Probability $2.10 +0.02 (+1.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.21) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.05x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.0%
$1.70 — $2.50

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-48.5% to -42.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -45.4% -42.3% to -36.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -36.1% to -29.9%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -29.9% to -23.6%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -26.8% -23.6% to -17.4%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) -17.4% to -11.2%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -11.2% to -5.0%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) -8.1% -5.0% to +1.2%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) +1.2% to +7.5%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) +7.5% to +13.7%: 42 occurrences (8.3%) 10.6% +13.7% to +19.9%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +19.9% to +26.1%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +26.1% to +32.3%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 29.2% +32.3% to +38.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +38.5% to +44.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +44.8% to +51.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 47.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.3% 34.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 35.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.21) and kurtosis (11.38).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.8% 39.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 73.8% 37.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (401 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 80.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 69.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 70.9%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -2.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -22.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +51.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -48.5%