Finance

BCO Move Probability $111.19 +2.37 (+2.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
38.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($116.75) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
20.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.93x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.5%
$102.85 — $119.54

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 509 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-25.3% to -21.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -23.6% -21.8% to -18.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -18.3% to -14.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -14.9% to -11.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -13.1% -11.4% to -7.9%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) -7.9% to -4.4%: 79 occurrences (15.5%) -4.4% to -1.0%: 110 occurrences (21.6%) -2.7% -1.0% to +2.5%: 107 occurrences (21.0%) +2.5% to +6.0%: 90 occurrences (17.7%) +6.0% to +9.4%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) 7.7% +9.4% to +12.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +12.9% to +16.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +16.4% to +19.9%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 18.1% +19.9% to +23.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +23.3% to +26.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +26.8% to +30.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 28.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 38.7% 20.0% Model-free reality across 509 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.24) and kurtosis (8.04).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 51.5% 25.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.4% 19.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (385 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 31.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 28.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 23.8%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +30.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -25.3%