Finance

BBDC Move Probability $8.25 -0.07 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
25.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($8.66) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
14.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.79x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±4.9%
$7.84 — $8.66

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.9% to -15.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -15.9% -15.0% to -13.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -13.0% to -11.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -11.1% to -9.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -10.1% -9.1% to -7.1%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -7.1% to -5.2%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -5.2% to -3.2%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) -4.2% -3.2% to -1.3%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -1.3% to +0.7%: 95 occurrences (18.7%) +0.7% to +2.6%: 101 occurrences (19.9%) 1.7% +2.6% to +4.6%: 66 occurrences (13.0%) +4.6% to +6.6%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) +6.6% to +8.5%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 7.5% +8.5% to +10.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +10.5% to +12.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +12.4% to +14.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 13.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 25.4% 14.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 5.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.3) and kurtosis (6.93).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 32.1% 16.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 24.0% 11.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (254 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 20.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 14.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 16.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-32% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.6%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +14.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -16.9%