Finance

AXON Move Probability $312.88 -70.94 (-18.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
30.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($328.52) at least once during 4 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 4
Expiration Close Probability
19.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 4-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.60x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±7.7%
$288.77 — $336.99

Historical 4-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 4-day percentage returns over 517 historical windows (2024-10-10 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-29.6% to -25.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -27.5% -25.3% to -21.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -21.0% to -16.6%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) -16.6% to -12.3%: 10 occurrences (1.9%) -14.5% -12.3% to -7.9%: 33 occurrences (6.4%) -7.9% to -3.6%: 81 occurrences (15.7%) -3.6% to +0.7%: 141 occurrences (27.3%) -1.4% +0.7% to +5.1%: 141 occurrences (27.3%) +5.1% to +9.4%: 53 occurrences (10.3%) +9.4% to +13.8%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 11.6% +13.8% to +18.1%: 14 occurrences (2.7%) +18.1% to +22.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +22.4% to +26.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 24.6% +26.8% to +31.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +31.1% to +35.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +35.5% to +39.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 37.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 30.4% 19.0% Model-free reality across 517 historical 4-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 12.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.15) and kurtosis (7.48).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 52.7% 26.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 33.9% 20.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (233 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 61.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 87.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+44% vs baseline)

4-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (4d): +39.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (4d): -29.6%