Finance

AXON Move Probability $312.88 -70.94 (-18.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
62.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($328.52) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
34.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.81x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±14.4%
$267.78 — $357.98

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 507 historical windows (2024-10-10 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.3% to -31.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -34.6% -31.9% to -26.6%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -26.6% to -21.2%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -21.2% to -15.9%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -18.6% -15.9% to -10.5%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -10.5% to -5.2%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) -5.2% to +0.1%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) -2.5% +0.1% to +5.5%: 90 occurrences (17.8%) +5.5% to +10.8%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +10.8% to +16.2%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) 13.5% +16.2% to +21.5%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) +21.5% to +26.9%: 17 occurrences (3.4%) +26.9% to +32.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 29.5% +32.2% to +37.6%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +37.6% to +42.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +42.9% to +48.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 45.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 62.3% 34.5% Model-free reality across 507 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 25.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.15) and kurtosis (7.48).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 73.5% 36.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 58.4% 32.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (233 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 61.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 87.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 43.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+44% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +21.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -19.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +48.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -37.3%